The second half
of 2023 will see a slow but steady rise in home sales and intensified
competition among buyers in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), according to the
Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).
However,
TRREB’s 2023 Market Outlook & 2022 Year in Review also forecasts a slight
decline in sales, with 70,000 sales expected this year, compared to 75,000 sale
sin 2022.
“A year
of two halves”
TRREB’s analyst
expect the average selling price for all home types combined will reach $1.14
million. This will be up from current levels based on tighter market conditions
forecast for the second half of 2023. The calendar year average price for 2023
will be four per cent lower than the 2022 average price.
“It will be
a year of two halves in 2023. The first half will feel similar to the fall of
2022 due to the lingering effects of higher borrowing costs and related
economic uncertainty,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer
“The second
half of 2023 should be characterized by an increase in demand for ownership
housing, supported by lower fixed mortgage rates, a relatively resilient labour
market, and record immigration,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.
Consumer Polling
This year’s
report includes Ipsos consumer polling on buying and selling intentions.
Ipsos
reports that overall buying intentions were up slightly compared to last year, with
28 per cent of respondents indicating that they will consider purchasing a home
in 2023.
Listing
intentions (those very likely or somewhat likely to list their home) for 2023
were up compared to 2022 for townhomes and similarly to 2022 condominium apartments
and semi-detached houses. Listing intentions for detached dwellings appear to
be trending lower.
Sustainable
Housing
According to
TRREB, the population of the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) region is projected
to grow by 71 per cent by 2051.
This growth
is driven by record immigration and job creation across a wide range of
industries.
While this
presents tremendous economic opportunities, TRREB warns that it also brings
about challenges in terms of housing supply, transportation infrastructure, and
other areas.
“This is a
wake-up call. We know there is a better way to build homes and communities. We
need a long-term vision with an eye on environmental sustainability from raw
materials to green designs that will benefit, not burden, future generations,”
said TRREB CRO John DiMichele.
Infrastructure
TRREB President
Paul Baron notes the GTA and surrounding GGH are known for their global
competitiveness in terms of economic, social, and cultural diversity,
attracting large numbers of people and businesses.
“IN order to
sustain this growth, we need to ensure that we have an adequate and diverse
supply of housing,” Baron said.
“This housing
must be supported by the appropriate infrastructure. Recent policy initiatives
at all levels of government seem to acknowledge this, but it’s time for these
policies to actually translate into tangible results.”
Source
By: REM